Steve G.

’12 Angry Candidates

In Libertarian Party-US, Politics on September 4, 2008 at 4:02 pm

I’m always amused to see the speculation during the major party conventions regarding their candidates for the next election — which implies they expect to lose this time around.  Since it’s unlikely that the Libertarian Party ticket will win this year, who might be on the LP wannabe list for 2012?  Wayne Allyn Root looks like a certainty.  Would Bob Barr run again?  Mary Ruwart?  Steve Kubby?  What about some of this year’s more prominent candidates like Michael Munger?

Who are your favorites for ’12 — and who do you think has a shot at the nomination?  Anyone want to use this thread to declare?

  1. Dunno. Who’s our masochist with the biggest ego?
    It would be nice, though, if we could separate the wheat from the chaff by 10/1/11 and have the candidate take the time to visit all (or most) states and build a campaign organization before the campaign needs to begin.

  2. Gary Johnson/Tim Penny is interesting.

  3. Agreed, Roscoe, that infrastructure needs to be built. But don’t expect our leadership to promote that…

  4. if I can recover financially from losing my house I’ll take another run.

  5. I want to be the Robert Milnes of 2012

  6. I’m hijacking this thread to announce that my wife is pregnant!

    A couple of you knew but now I have the “green light” from Cilla to spread the news.


  7. Well one can hope that Barr/Root gets their ass handed to them enough that anyone associated with that disaster will get less respect than Milnes.

    Otherwise, I could live w/ Kubby or Mary, or George. I’d really love to see L. Neil Smith make a serious run for it (but am not expecting it…) I’m not thrilled by Jingo, but wouldn’t be horribly upset if he got it.

    Root would be another Barr, totally not acceptable, no matter what sort of payoffs he’s made to Redpath…

    I don’t think much of the other contenders from this year’s batch. Don’t know who will pop up from the rest of the party, but I will say that I have little interest in a candidate that does not have a fairly long record of LIBERTARIAN action with (and without) the party, and who doesn’t at least express interest in running well before the convention. IMHO the late entries were problematic for both Mary and Barr…


    PS – Congratulations Jason…

  8. Congrats, Jason.

    Another on the 18-year plan… 🙂

  9. I believe that Barr will likely fade from the LP (though he may remain a member) and re-invigorate his Republican activism and connections.

    If McCain loses (likely), Barr will take major steps to win a statewide seat (as a Republican) in Georgia in 2010 (Governor or US Senator), which if successful, he will use to set up a run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012.

    W.A.R. says he is in the LP for the long haul, but I believe that he may be obsessive/compulsive enough to just scrap that supposed “commitment” in a year or so. I say good riddance to W.A.R., and the sooner the better.

    Mary Ruwart is possibly primed to test the waters again, but would likely do so much earlier in next presidential election cycle.

    Due to Steve Kubby’s low vote total in Denver, I am doubtful that he will try again, but he may surprise us if he runs in 2010 and does well for a Senate or House seat.

    George Phillies, as a precedent, shows that he is willing to run and run again for something (LNC chair 4 consecutive times), so anything is possible with George.

    Mike Jingozian, as Vice-Chair, and a possible candidate for Chair in 2010 remains a distinct possibility again to run in 2012.

    The lesser known and/or vote-getting candidates may throw in a token run, but I doubt anything will materialize.

    Ron Paul is likely to stay in the GOP and would likely not try for anything other than his house seat again, or vie for the Senate in Texas as a Republican.

    Capozzi’s Gary Johnson/Tim Penny suggestion is mildly interesting, though quite predictable from a devout Reform Caucus member. Neither of these men are principled libertarians, just as Barr and Gravel (and W.A.R.) aren’t, and neither can be counted upon to uphold liberty in areas which are substantially controversial . Johnson is a likable fellow and would be a mite bit better than either Barr (a good deal better than W.A.R.)

    I wouldn’t mind seeing a known business leader who isn’t concerned about “ruining” a political career by promoting a principled libertarian line, consider a run for the LP nomination. Who might that be . . . someone please step up. If the LP can’t attract anyone new, who isn’t better than the Barr/W.A.R. Republicanism which is polluting the LP, the party may be in serious trouble. Mary Ruwart might then be the only individual who could save the party.

  10. After watching Jesse Ventura’s speech at the Rally for the Republic, I wondered if Richard Mack would be willing to run with him in 2012.

    Ventura/Mack has a nice ring to it … and Mack would offer a moderate libertarian balance to the more populist Ventura.

  11. I’m so sick of hearing how Mary ruwart can “save the party.” Whatever……
    I at least hope that her next campaign manager will be a woman, since she had an affair with her last one, who was a married man.

  12. Joy Waymire has also said she is running, though I’m not sure if she’s planning to seek the LP or BTP nomination — or both.

    I would prefer Tim Penny to Gary Johnson, but I’m probably in the minority on that one.

  13. I talked to Joy and she’s seeking the LP nomination. I don’t know about the BTP.

  14. Joy has said she is running as an LP candidate. She also recently sent word to the members of the California BTP group that she is stepping aside as chair due to other commitments.

    Jason, congratulations to you and your wife on the excellent news. Best wishes for a happy and healthy baby and a worry free birth. Best wishes, also, for a happy and healthy mother.

  15. Wow, Karl—I heard that same bit of information on Mary Ruwart having an affair with her campaign manager a couple of months ago? Is that true? If it is, how can we trust her to be our presidential candidate in 2012?

  16. Barr in 2012? PUHLEEEASE! He’ll be long gone before ’09 is done.

  17. I’m not sure what Mary Ruwart’s personal life has to do with her suitability as a candidate, but whatever.

    Maybe I’ll implement my threat to run for VP. I’ll be well over 35 by 1/20/13. And I have a great deal of foreign policy experience as a resident of a country that borders other countries, and who lives relatively close to a bunch of embassies.

  18. Congrats Jason. Give your wife our best. You da man! :}>


  19. Barr would have to beat Ed Clark’s percentage to be taken seriously for a second run for the nomination. The only other time that someone has run successfully for the LP nomination twice in a row was Harry Browne, who made the LP’s second best electoral showing. Plus, Barr would have to be interested in running again. I give Barr a 2% chance at being the 2012 nominee.

    The same conditions as listed above would have to happen for Root to win the nomination. I give Root a 5% chance.

    Penn Jillette would be an interesting choice, though I doubt he actually runs. 10% chance.

    Given that Michael Jingozian has now become part of the party leadership, I do not think a second presidential run is unlikely for him. 25% chance.

    Considering how close Ruwart was to getting the nomination this time around, it wouldn’t take much for her to get it next time around. Still, a lot can happen between now and 2012. 40% chance.

    Someone else. 18% chance. I doubt anyone predicted Michael Badnarik would be the nominee in 2000, Harry Browne in 1992, or David Bergland in 1980. If I am correct, that would mean that 30% of the time, the LP nominee was someone unpredictable four years prior to the election. Given the diversity of this year’s field, I think it is less likely that 2012 will have someone not predictable right now.

  20. By the way, my personal preference would be Ruwart/Jillette.

  21. By the way—Ruwart’s personal preference would be any married man……

  22. I realize that this is for the 2012 election; but I just want to let you guys know that 2016 will be a great election. I will be running and hope to get the BTP nomination, I will try to get the LP & CP nominations, as well. Although the last two are doubtful.
    If nothing else, I will attempt find several small independent parties to help me with ballot access.

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