The lastest LibertarianLists survey is completed. This time, we spent more time looking information which will impact the Libertarian Party’s presidential candidates. It looks as if all of the LP presidential frontrunners will be able to spin the data in a favorable manner to their respective campaigns.
Ron Paul is still the big winner. However, if you take a look at all survey respondents, Wayne Allyn Root comes out on top of the LP candidates, with Kubby and Phillies tied for second.
| Field Summary for 10005: | ||
| If the 2008 General Election was held today, for which presidential candidate are you most likely to vote? | ||
| Answer | Count | Percentage |
| No answer | 0 | 0.00% |
| Steve Kubby (1) | 21 | 2.87% |
| Mike Gravel (2) | 0 | 0.00% |
| George Phillies (3) | 21 | 2.87% |
| Ron Paul (4) | 537 | 73.46% |
| Wayne Allyn Root (5) | 31 | 4.24% |
| Dennis Kucinich (6) | 2 | 0.27% |
| Mike Jingozian (7) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Newt Gingrich (8) | 11 | 1.50% |
| Christine Smith (9) | 5 | 0.68% |
| Barack Obama (10) | 9 | 1.23% |
| Daniel Imperato (11) | 1 | 0.14% |
| Tom Tancredo (12) | 5 | 0.68% |
| Barry Hess (13) | 3 | 0.41% |
| Joe Biden (14) | 1 | 0.14% |
| Alden Link (15) | 1 | 0.14% |
| Chuck Hagel (16) | 1 | 0.14% |
| Robert Milnes (17) | 1 | 0.14% |
| Mike Bloomberg (18) | 1 | 0.14% |
| Bob Jackson (19) | 2 | 0.27% |
| Fred Thompson (20) | 17 | 2.33% |
| John Finan (21) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Dave Hollist (22) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Rudy Giuliani (23) | 18 | 2.46% |
| John McCain (24) | 1 | 0.14% |
| Hillary Clinton (25) | 2 | 0.27% |
| Mike Huckabee (26) | 3 | 0.41% |
| John Edwards (27) | 1 | 0.14% |
| Tommy Thompson (28) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Jim Gilmore (29) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Duncan Hunter (30) | 1 | 0.14% |
| Al Gore (31) | 4 | 0.55% |
| Mitt Romney (32) | 3 | 0.41% |
| Bill Richardson (33) | 4 | 0.55% |
| Alan Keyes (34) | 2 | 0.27% |
| Cynthia McKinney (35) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Gail Parker (36) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Ralph Nader (37) | 2 | 0.27% |
| Sam Brownback (38) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Other (-oth-) | 20 | 2.74% |
Now let’s take a look at how self-identified Libertarian Party members voted. After Paul, the order goes Phillies, Kubby and then Root.
| Field Summary for 10005: | ||
| If the 2008 General Election was held today, for which presidential candidate are you most likely to vote? | ||
| Answer | Count | Percentage |
| No answer | 0 | 0.00% |
| Steve Kubby (1) | 17 | 3.39% |
| Mike Gravel (2) | 0 | 0.00% |
| George Phillies (3) | 20 | 3.99% |
| Ron Paul (4) | 383 | 76.45% |
| Wayne Allyn Root (5) | 16 | 3.19% |
| Dennis Kucinich (6) | 2 | 0.40% |
| Mike Jingozian (7) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Newt Gingrich (8) | 6 | 1.20% |
| Christine Smith (9) | 5 | 1.00% |
| Barack Obama (10) | 3 | 0.60% |
| Daniel Imperato (11) | 1 | 0.20% |
| Tom Tancredo (12) | 1 | 0.20% |
| Barry Hess (13) | 3 | 0.60% |
| Joe Biden (14) | 1 | 0.20% |
| Alden Link (15) | 1 | 0.20% |
| Chuck Hagel (16) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Robert Milnes (17) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Mike Bloomberg (18) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Bob Jackson (19) | 2 | 0.40% |
| Fred Thompson (20) | 7 | 1.40% |
| John Finan (21) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Dave Hollist (22) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Rudy Giuliani (23) | 11 | 2.20% |
| John McCain (24) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Hillary Clinton (25) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Mike Huckabee (26) | 1 | 0.20% |
| John Edwards (27) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Tommy Thompson (28) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Jim Gilmore (29) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Duncan Hunter (30) | 1 | 0.20% |
| Al Gore (31) | 1 | 0.20% |
| Mitt Romney (32) | 2 | 0.40% |
| Bill Richardson (33) | 2 | 0.40% |
| Alan Keyes (34) | 1 | 0.20% |
| Cynthia McKinney (35) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Gail Parker (36) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Ralph Nader (37) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Sam Brownback (38) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Other (-oth-) | 14 | 2.79% |
If we only look at LP members who plan to show, as well as may possibly show, at the Libertarian National Convention, (aside from Paul) Phillies still wins with the choices offered. While I’m not displaying the table, Kubby won with the LP members who said they would not be likely delegates to the convention.
| Field Summary for 10005: | ||
| If the 2008 General Election was held today, for which presidential candidate are you most likely to vote? | ||
| Answer | Count | Percentage |
| No answer | 0 | 0.00% |
| Steve Kubby (1) | 9 | 6.67% |
| Mike Gravel (2) | 0 | 0.00% |
| George Phillies (3) | 14 | 10.37% |
| Ron Paul (4) | 82 | 60.74% |
| Wayne Allyn Root (5) | 12 | 8.89% |
| Dennis Kucinich (6) | 2 | 1.48% |
| Mike Jingozian (7) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Newt Gingrich (8) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Christine Smith (9) | 4 | 2.96% |
| Barack Obama (10) | 1 | 0.74% |
| Daniel Imperato (11) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Tom Tancredo (12) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Barry Hess (13) | 2 | 1.48% |
| Joe Biden (14) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Alden Link (15) | 1 | 0.74% |
| Chuck Hagel (16) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Robert Milnes (17) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Mike Bloomberg (18) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Bob Jackson (19) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Fred Thompson (20) | 3 | 2.22% |
| John Finan (21) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Dave Hollist (22) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Rudy Giuliani (23) | 0 | 0.00% |
| John McCain (24) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Hillary Clinton (25) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Mike Huckabee (26) | 0 | 0.00% |
| John Edwards (27) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Tommy Thompson (28) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Jim Gilmore (29) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Duncan Hunter (30) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Al Gore (31) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Mitt Romney (32) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Bill Richardson (33) | 2 | 1.48% |
| Alan Keyes (34) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Cynthia McKinney (35) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Gail Parker (36) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Ralph Nader (37) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Sam Brownback (38) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Other (-oth-) | 3 | 2.22% |
In order to speculate about which LP candidate will win the Libertarian National Convention, it was important to only provide the likely convention choices in a question directed to LP members. Considering the influence of Ron Paul’s campaign on LP politics, we asked the question two different ways. In both cases, Kubby won, followed by Phillies and then Root.
| Field Summary for 20002L: | ||
| Assuming that Ron Paul is no longer in the presidential race at the time of the Libertarian Party presidential nominating convention, for which Libertarian Party presidential candidate would you cast your nominating vote? | ||
| Answer | Count | Percentage |
| No answer | 0 | 0.00% |
| None of the above (1) | 32 | 6.39% |
| George Phillies (2) | 44 | 8.78% |
| Steve Kubby (3) | 56 | 11.18% |
| Wayne Allyn Root (4) | 31 | 6.19% |
| Barry Hess (5) | 17 | 3.39% |
| Christine Smith (6) | 12 | 2.40% |
| Daniel Imperato (7) | 5 | 1.00% |
| Dave Hollist (8) | 0 | 0.00% |
| John Finan (9) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Robert Milnes (10) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Alden Link (11) | 2 | 0.40% |
| Bob Jackson (12) | 3 | 0.60% |
| Mike Jingozian (13) | 0 | 0.00% |
| undecided (14) | 274 | 54.69% |
| Other (-oth-) | 25 | 4.99% |
| Field Summary for 20003L: | ||
| Assuming that Ron Paul is running competitively as a Republican candidate at the time of the Libertarian Party presidential nominating convention, for which Libertarian Party presidential candidate would you cast your nominating vote? | ||
| Answer | Count | Percentage |
| No answer | 0 | 0.00% |
| None of the above (1) | 23 | 4.59% |
| George Phillies (2) | 24 | 4.79% |
| Steve Kubby (3) | 28 | 5.59% |
| Wayne Allyn Root (4) | 21 | 4.19% |
| Barry Hess (5) | 8 | 1.60% |
| Christine Smith (6) | 9 | 1.80% |
| Daniel Imperato (7) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Dave Hollist (8) | 0 | 0.00% |
| John Finan (9) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Robert Milnes (10) | 1 | 0.20% |
| Alden Link (11) | 2 | 0.40% |
| Bob Jackson (12) | 2 | 0.40% |
| Mike Jingozian (13) | 0 | 0.00% |
| Would try to change the bylaws in order for Ron Paul to receive the Libertarian Party nomination or become engaged in some sort of effort to draft Ron Paul as the Libertarian presidential nominee (14) | 253 | 50.50% |
| undecided (15) | 117 | 23.35% |
| Other (-oth-) | 13 | 2.59% |
Full raw data here.
For a quick view of Ron Paul support, visit here.
To see how delegates to the 2008 Libertarian National Convention may respond to the Ron Paul situation, visit here.
yeah, root looks the best to me, because i love war.
I find it disturbing that 253 respondents would strive to change the LP bylaws to make a Republican the LP candidate. Anyone still believe that RP is not doing harm to the LP?
Guys,
Could you please either get rid of the trackback URL, or fix it? It always responds with an error message, because apparently it asks for a capcha code from the trackback ping.
Here’s my horse-and-buggy-style trackback.
“MRJarrell Says:
July 25th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
I find it disturbing that 253 respondents would strive to change the LP bylaws to make a Republican the LP candidate. Anyone still believe that RP is not doing harm to the LP?”
Ron Paul is still a Life Member of the Libertarian Party. He’s reaching far more people than all of the declared Libertarian Party Presidential candidates combined.
Is this really a big enough sample to say Phillies, Kubby or Root wins?
My guess is no. Especially with the big issue being how Ron Paul does in the early primaries, and also whether he changes his mind and decides to run as LP, CP and/or independent, and if so, which one (not likely, but possible).
I think it’s still pretty early in the process; plenty of time left for one of the campaigns to take off or implode, or another candidate to drop in. Was Russo even running midway through 2003?
Getting supporters to the convention will be key for Kubby (and for the radical caucus). I’ll be working on setting up some kind of ride/room share
board or forum. If anyone wants to help with that please let me know.
Another key will be signing up new members. I would like to do a college group organizing tour in the fall, if we can raise money to keep me and/or
someone else on the road. Right now it’s just a group on facebook, but if anyone wants to help with organizing that, your help would be appreciated.
“I think it’s still pretty early in the process; plenty of time left for one of the campaigns to take off or implode, or another candidate to drop in. Was Russo even running midway through 2003?”
I don’t think that Aaron Russo entered the race until sometime around November or December of 2003, or perhaps even as late as January of 2004.
Andy,
Russo jumped in at the end of January 2004 at the State Chairs Conference in North Carolina.
Paul,
There aren’t enough supporters to indicate a clear winner (other than RP), IMO.
Andy,
Being a life member is nothing. There are more than a few people who are life members of the LP who are no longer involved in politics. All it takes is dropping a one time payment on the LP. Michael Moore is a life member of the NRA…would you contend that he is a supporter of the 2nd Amendment?
The sample size isn’t the only issue.
The study itself is invalid.
It’s a self-selecting survey of people who claim to identify as Libertarians.
Whenever viewing research like this, ask yourself: could someone come along and alter the results by asking their fans to stuff the ballot box?
If the answer is “yes,” then you know you’re dealing with a useless study.
If Imperato, who has hundreds (if not thousands) of people on his mailing list got them to post their opinions here, he’d suddenly roar into first place and Stephen would be talking about an “amazing surge of Imperato support that suggests that 2/3 of Libertarians now intend to support him over Ron Paul.”
That would be a lousy conclusion too. The survey, which obviously draws from a base of Ron Paul supporters, is being spammed by Paul supporters (just like other invalid self-selected surveys on Republican web sites have been). It’s neither statistically valid nor an accurate view of Libertarian sentiment in the slightest, by simple dint of its self-selective nature.
Brian,
Again, I’ll state this: There has been no evidence of any Ron Paul spamming. Additionally, as I’ve been speaking with other big-L contacts around the country, anecdotal info seems to bear out the survey results, at least within the LP community.