Ron Paul’s chances in the NSGOP primary are about the same as Kucinich in the Double Penetration Donkey Show Party.

Neither one will be winning the primaries, or coming close, much less the general election.

Both have about the same chance of being the next president as the eventual nominees of the LP, Greens or Constitution Party.

I hate to say that, but it’s true. I don’t gamble much anymore, but I’ll bet on that one.

The Republican primary is a mess right now. Very few strong Republican candidates want to make a Presidential bid with the current Republican President being so unpopular, and the left so much more determined to take the Presidency than the right is to keep it. Sure, there’s John McCain, but he’s so 8 years ago. If, as the previous video attests, the other Republican front runners are so unelectable (they have a good point that Guiliani will almost definitely lose in south carolina, and probably in iowa as well), the field is still wide open.

So, if the main front runners drop out, it will be a race to see which of the lowre tier candidates can take one of the early voting states. Hagel will most likely take Iowa. Ron Paul has a good chance in New Hampshire, especially with the FSP moving activists and donors in. South Carolina will probably be a face off between the Iowa and NH winners, and with Ron Paul being a Texan he has a little bit of an advantage. If he can take those two early states, the other Republican challengers will have an uphill battle trying to overcome the momentum he’ll get by winning.

If he does take the primary, I think he could win against Hillary. Sure, she’ll have him beat on funds, but she’s also got him beat on polarizing the country. No conservative is going to vote for Hillary over Ron Paul. Paul at least feels abortion and gay marriage should be left up to the states, which is enough for religious southern and midwestern voters to favor him over Hillary. He voted against the Patriot Act and the Iraq war, so many younger liberals will remove their support from Hillary if she’s up against a truly anti-war candidate. His biggest challenge will be winning over moderates to add to the conservative and far-left voters who are likely to support him.

http://kubby2008.com/

I’m working on his campaign.

He’s pro-immigration, for one thing. As an immigrant, I consider that an important issue.

I’ve had a lot to say about it, much of which you can find in the archives here:

http://lastfreevoice.wordpress.com/?s=immigration

Ron Paul’s really more of a Constitutionalist than a Libertarian. I do support him in the Republican primary, even though he has no chance there.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul-arch.html

As a New Yorker I’m constantly horrified that Hillary and Chuck represent me. Chuck’s new book looks simplistic and cherishes that big old kiss of government that started just down the road in Hyde Park . . . curses that FDR !

Obama’s the only antidote for her. He’s hardly a fantastic candidate himself but he’s not Hillary, and that’s good enough for me to support him in the Democratic primaries.

Unfortunately the 10K+ that will see that, won’t outweigh the thousands available at the drop of the DNC’s hat for a feel good what are you going to do for us now Hillary bandwagon.